Japan
posted its biggest ever trade deficit in January, topping the previous
record seen during the financial crisis in 2009, Ministry of Finance
data showed On Monday, underlining concerns that a persistent trade gap
may undermine the country's ability to finance its debt.



The trade deficit stood at 1.475 trillion yen ($18.59 billion), against
median market forecast for 1.468 trillion yen, marking a fourth straight
month of deficit, as weak global demand and a strong yen hurt exports
and robust fuel demand boosts imports.



Exports fell 9.3 percent from a year earlier, down for a fourth straight
month. That compared with a 9.5 percent drop expected by economists,
following an 8.0 percent decline in the year to December.



Japan logged an annual trade deficit in 2011 for the first time in 31
years as the March disaster, a global slowdown and a strong yen dealt a
blow to an export-reliant economy.

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2012/02/japan-posts-record-trade-deficit-in.html

I'd say they gonna drive Yen down toward 90... they have to.

Study links ultrafast machine trading with risk of crash

(PhysOrg.com) -- In the United States, ultrafast trading in
financial markets between 2006 and 2011 was the underlying factor for
over 18,000 extreme price changes, according to a new study. Neil
Johnson, a professor in the physics department of the University of
Miami in Coral Gables, one of the authors of the study, thinks that a
buildup of such "fractures" can destabilize the market. This study,
“Financial Black Swans Driven by Ultrafast Machine Ecology” was
submitted to arXiv earlier this month, suggesting the link between
extreme-change fractures and market crashes.

The authors looked at a set of what they call "18,520 ultrafast black
swan events" that they uncovered in stock-price movements between 2006
and 2011. A case in point is what occurred on May 6, 2010, when it took
just minutes for a spontaneous mix of interactions in cyberspace to
generate the Flash Crash, first a plunge, in minutes, and soon after a
recovery.

The speed in which the rises and falls occur might last no longer
than half a second, unapparent to any human who is tracking prices.
Johnson says if you blink you miss it. Flash events may happen in
milliseconds and have nothing to do with a company’s real value.

To examine such incidences and their frequency the authors of the
study waded through price logs from over 60 markets collected by Nanex, a
Chicago company that sells streaming market data. The data revealed
that the ultrafast fracture events were not infrequent but common,
totaling 18,520 in the 2006 to 2010 time span. The authors looked for
extreme changes in a stock price, which they defined as a change greater
than 0.8 per cent, over timescales shorter than 1.5 seconds.

http://www.physorg.com/news/2012-02-links-ultrafast-machine.html

Israel to US: Disagreement over attack on nuclear sites serves Iranian interests

Hilarious.  And I bet this argument works too in DC. Talking about trying to protect Bush era "faulty intelligence" scheme. Wait until they realizes the public starts to ask ...who exactly is this Israelis and why do we have to protect them? And it turns out there is no treaty nor legal obligation to protect them whatsoever.

The current Syrian crisis is not an issue purely concerning
human rights protection as the West alleges. The West wants to topple
the Syrian government and replace it with a pro-Western one. Syria is
considered a problem in the West's Middle East strategy because of its
close relations with Iran and Lebanon, which are hostile to the United
States.

In order to play a part in the Middle East, the Arab League
is willing to charge into the West's Middle East strategy. After solving
the Syrian issue in a non-peaceful way, the West's next target, no
doubt, will be Iran.

China's veto does not mean that Beijing takes sides with
the Syrian government, or that it is turning a blind eye to the bloody
clashes, it means it does not want Syria to end up on the same
disastrous road as Libya, which finally ended in a full-scale civil war.

As a permanent member of the UN Security Council, China
has the responsibility and obligation to defend the UN Charter,
international justice and code of conduct, and so must reject any
resolutions that are in violation of the UN Charter and purposes.

If China knows that a resolution is likely to endanger
state sovereignty and go against justice and it does nothing, it will
be serious malpractice.

http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/opinion/2012-02/20/content_14643422.htm

I am wondering what Turkey is thinking, since Syria is all about black sea.

Bank of Korea Reshuffle to Put New Board Members in Majority From April

Besides the scheduled replacements, one seat has been
vacant since April 2010. Governor Kim Choong Soo, who said in a
January interview that rates remain “accommodative” and
shouldn’t stay that way for “a long period of time,” is near
the half-way point of his four-year term.

On Feb. 9, the Bank of Korea kept the benchmark seven-day
repurchase rate unchanged at 3.25 percent.

“Although our economy is in a difficult situation, it will
return to a long-term growth trend,” Kim said at the time. “We
will stay on alert to price gains as inflation expectations are
still considerably high.”

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-02-21/bank-of-korea-reshuffle-to-put-new-board-members-in-majority-from-april.html

Everybody in Asia is gearing up for the big crash. (There is no way north atlantic is not going to crash. All the trade number says so. And this is before another middle east war.)

Meaningless Greek Deal Supposedly Reached; Deal Won't Hold

And the problems are getting worse, fast. Japan’s
all-important trade surplus has generated $1 trillion in foreign
exchange reserves and has been one of the pillars supporting the
government’s deficit-addicted ways. Alas, the joyride is over. The trade
balance for January, reported
today, was a record deficit of ¥1.475 trillion ($18.6 billion), the
fourth consecutive month of trade deficits. Already, 2011 had seen the
first annual trade deficit in 31 years, but it was mild compared to what
2012 will look like.

http://www.zerohedge.com/contributed/prime-ministerial-unpopularity-contest-edge-abyss

French Philosopher Bernard-Henri Lévy’s Libyan Crusade Shows the Need for Robust Public Intellectuals

http://www.policymic.com/articles/4457/french-philosopher-bernard-henri-levy-s-libyan-crusade-shows-the-need-for-robust-public-intellectuals/category_list

more like zionist manipulation at highest government office.

One of the dirty little secrets of the stock market rally is
that the rising corporate profits that powered it are largely phantom
profits. Why are they phantom? Because they are artifacts of currency devaluation, not an increase in efficiency or production of goods and services.

Though few domestic observers make mention of it, the large, global
U.S.-based corporations are now dependent on non-U.S. sales for about
40% of their revenues (50% and up for many companies) and virtually all
their profit growth. Overseas sales are made in the local currency: the
euro, yen, renminbi, Australian dollar, Canadian dollar and so on, and
the profits are stated in U.S. dollars on corporate profit and loss
statements.

In 2002, 1 euro of profit earned by a U.S. global corporation
equaled $1 in profit when converted to U.S. dollars. That same 1 euro
profit swelled to $1.60 in 2008 as the U.S. dollar depreciated against
the euro. That $ .60 of profit was phantom, an artifact of the
depreciating dollar; it did not result from a higher production of goods
and services or greater efficiencies.

This is why profits earned in non-U.S. markets have risen so dramatically even as domestically earned profits have stagnated.
The U.S. dollar has declined dramatically against the currencies of our
major trading partners, boosting phantom profits across the board when
the non-U.S. profits are converted to U.S. dollars on corporate profit
and loss statements.

The Federal Reserve has actively pursued a policy of devaluing the
dollar, supposedly in the hopes of expanding exports as it became
cheaper to buy goods and services denominated in U.S. dollars. While
exports have nudged up as the dollar lost value, the truly significant
result of this policy was boosting foreign exchange-generated profits of
global U.S. corporations.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/guest-post-what-happens-when-phantom-profits-vanish

How long can this situation be sustained? Central banks keep printing money, so everybody can borrow the chinese to buy chinese goods.  Essentially, debt is not reduced via debasement, only older debt. however new import debt also rise. (oil/china )  By 2015, yuan will be international currency. By 2018, china economy will be about the same size as US. All while growing at 8%.

Belgians Get Cold Feet as Bailout Queen Dexia Drags them toward the Abyss

Bailout queen Dexia, the Franco-Belgian mega-bank that collapsed
twice and was bailed out twice within three years—in 2008 and last
October—is turning into a nightmare for the tiny Kingdom of Belgium and
its taxpayers.

As part of the second bailout, Belgium guaranteed 60.5% of €90
billion in debt—€54.5 billion, or 14% of Belgium’s GDP. France and
Luxembourg guaranteed the remainder. Belgium then nationalized the local
subsidiary, Dexia Banque Belgique (DBB) for €4 billion and assumed
whatever toxic assets were fouling up the air inside. Belgian bailout
manna also rained on other worthy banks, including BNP Paribas and
Fortis Banque. In total, Belgium guaranteed €138 billion in debt, 35% of
its GDP! In addition, it injected €15.7 billion in capital and €8.6
billion in loans into the financial sector. For a total exposure of €162
billion—gasp—41% of its GDP! For that immense taxpayer ripoff and how finally someone is going after the CEO of Dexia, read.... "Not A Bank But A Hedge Fund".

Belgians have a love-hate relationship with the left-over parts of
Dexia. They employ 10,000 Belgians, but they’re also threatening to pull
the country into a financial abyss. And now bad news for taxpayers is
piling up. Dexia SA released its fourth-quarter results today: a
monumental loss of €11.6 billion ($15.3 billion), which includes
write-downs of its Greek bonds and other crappy assets, plus hefty
operating losses. Of that loss, Belgian taxpayers will eat 60.5%. At the
end of December, it owed €48 billion on its emergency lines of credit
with central banks.

http://www.zerohedge.com/contributed/bailout-queen-dexia-their-shoulders-belgians-are-getting-cold-feet

European economy is crashing hard. No way those banks can be profitable for several years from normal/honest business. It'll be all hand out money, more toxic papers and debt.

plus, majority of europe are now paying $8/gallon gas!! Holy shit...

Brent rises above $124 on Iran jitters, US data

Brent crude rose 45 cents to $124.07 by 0239 GMT
after settling on Thursday at $123.62 a barrel, the highest
front-month settlement since May 2 last year. Brent has gained
more than 11 percent so far this month.

U.S. crude futures rose for a seventh day, its
longest winning streak since a 10-day gain in December 2009. The
April contract was up 66 cents at $108.49 a barrel.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/02/24/markets-oil-idUSL4E8DO0QF20120224

There is NO WAY europe can survive this and not having another major banking crash... absolutely no way. But then again, they probably gonna print, print and print some more... 

Singapore Air Slashes Freighter Capacity 20% on Demand Slump

Davidson also serves up equally grim tidings for our nation’s
retirees. “The welfare state is broke, busted, and the expectation of
retirement for the majority of people will be exposed as, at best, an
even more illusive dream, and, at worst, a hoax.”

With speculation rife that it’s only a matter of time before Greece
defaults despite a recent bailout package, as well as the prospects of
other countries also defaulting, it’s worth taking note of a frightening
observation from Citibank’s chief economist, Willem Buiter.

Focusing on the threat of disorderly defaults–which we’ve already
seen in such riot-torn nations as Greece and Italy–Buiter contends such
disorderly defaults “would drag down not just the European banking
system, but also the North Atlantic financial system and the
internationally exposed parts of the rest of the global banking system
that would likely last for years, with GDP falling by more than 10% and
unemployment in the West reaching 20% or more. Emerging markets,” he
observed, “would be dragged down, too.”

So there you have it, a slew of scary events, any of which could
clobber the economy and the financial markets at any given moment. How
real such risks are is anybody’s guess, but the message from our
worrywarts is clear: there’s still plenty of economic danger ahead.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/guest-post-why-us-economy-could-go-haywire

Print more money, yo.... the future is bright.

OECD GDP growth slows sharply to 0.1% in the fourth quarter of 2011

The OECD total masks diverging patterns however. In the United States,
GDP growth accelerated to 0.7% in the fourth quarter of 2011, compared
with 0.5% in the third quarter, while in Japan GDP declined by 0.6%
following the strong technical rebound (1.7%) in the third quarter. In
the Euro area and the European Union, GDP also fell, by 0.3%, for the
first time since the second quarter of 2009.

...For the whole of 2011, GDP in the OECD area grew by 1.8%, down from 3.1% in 2010.

http://www.eurotrib.com/story/2012/2/20/62619/8482

Delusional Economics is onto something:

What makes the situation completely surreal are the
numbers. Greek debt in 2008 was approximately 260bn Euro. The first
bailout was 110bn, the current one, that appears to be tearing the
country apart, is 130bn. Add in the PSI+ haircut of approximately 100bn (
after sweetener deduction ) and you realized that Europe could have
simply paid the entire bill in 2008 and saved itself 80bn Euro. Ok, that
is an oversimplification of the problem but you can see my
point…However now, after 340bn Euros, Greece
is still has an unmanageable debt, is in a far worse position than it
was 3 years ago and it appears the country itself is coming apart at the
seams….So basically the Greek politicians and the other Eurocrats took a
quarter of a billion euro problem and turned it into a existential
trillion Euro one.

All this is about – all anything going on in economics and government
worldwide is about at this point – is preserving the decrepit fiat-debt
system.  The rulers have no other concern.  They are the system’s
operators and chief beneficiaries.  It’s not a conspiracy, it’s just
something they know in their bones:  where their bread is buttered.

http://strikelawyer.wordpress.com/2012/02/13/greece-test-case-for-the-kleptocracy/

 greek population is about 10 million people. It's a tiny economy.

The world's central banks are now securitizing trash BUT the
difference but the central banks ("CB") securitization and prior
securitization is that this current CB-sponsored securitization will
ONLY reach consumers in the form of inflation, NOT in the form of
credit liquidity.

I serve as a M&A adviser to the growth end of the middle market, firms with c. $20M - $300M of revenue.

Have been chanting "SIZE matters. Grow or go. In 5 years lower middle
market will be $300M of revenue, there will be virtually NO small
businesses under $100 as WalMart, big box retailers will render the
specialty stores to the sidelines as the credit which powered specialty
stores never returns". 

In this world size matters, intellectual scale or financial scale.
Too many small businesses will be bankrupt in the next 5 years as they
don't understand this point.

I wish American who ran small businesses would read ZeroHedge and
realize that since the securitization market died, so did all the cheap
working capital and senior bank loans.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/guest-post-small-business-america-burdened-crushed-doomed

Syria: Hillary Clinton calls Russia and China 'despicable' for opposing UN resolution

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/syria/9105470/Syria-Hillary-Clinton-calls-Russia-and-China-despicable-for-opposing-UN-resolution.html

Sibel Edmonds also said that she had received information from
Turkish and US sources indicating that training Syrian opposition
forces, led by defected Syrian colonel Riad al-Assad, had started in
May, the Turkish daily Milliyet reported.

Edmonds further added that the US is involved in smuggling arms into Syria from Incirlik military base in Turkey in addition to providing financial support for Syrian rebels.

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/02/24/1068125/-Sibel-U-S-Training-Syrian-Rebels?via=siderecent

This must be one of those "asian pivot". Not only Hillary picked a fight in Russian election, which means Russian oil, second biggest exporters. Wonder what Putin is thinking. She is now trying to poke China after the entire Tibet thing.

Note how China's 0.5 RRR affect global price. China has huge leverage on capital flow, and can move around global currency price with ease. In other word, they can crash Too Big to bail institutions with a press of a button. Combined with Russian/Iran pinch of energy supply, nobody is going to remember what Syria is about while several biggest US banks are collapsing.

Printing more money isn't going to help... what will that money do while people are panicking? Go out, shop and spend $1Trillion dollar?

Essentially, Obama has arrive where Bush was, geopolitically. In 4 years instead of 8. Completely isolating the country from everybody. Crashing europe, sour Latin America, pissed off BRIC, burning middle east, and suspicious soon to be angry asia. (observe Japan marine bases or yet another korea naval skirmish)

That leave Africa... I am sure north africa turning into al qaeda swamp fest is good place for investment.

So much for export, energy price, world growth...

[–]fthflyer[S] 1018 points 9 hours ago

IMF chief Christine Lagarde admits there may be no accord on a European war chest by April

IMF managing director Christine Lagarde conceded there may be no agreement by
April from its members to raise $500bn (£378bn) to help Europe fight its
debt crisis because you can't do it by "flicking your fingers".

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/9107732/IMF-chief-Christine-Lagarde-admits-there-may-be-no-accord-on-a-European-war-chest-by-April.html

The old stalemate. Rest of world want IMF veto removed, US wants to keep. .. so no new money or vote changing. Europe is toast. Keep printing that euro sister.

The officials, who attended an informal one-day meeting of ASEAN
economic ministers here earlier in the day, also said governments that
would be involved in the proposed Regional Comprehensive Economic
Partnership agreement should aim to complete the negotiations by 2015.

In addition, the free trade agreement should be negotiated as a
"comprehensive single undertaking" instead of a "sequential approach,"
they said, citing a proposal paper circulated by the Jakarta-based ASEAN
Secretariat at the meeting.

"A comprehensive but pragmatic RCEP agreement would be more attractive to ASEAN's FTA partners," the report says.

"ASEAN should not lose sight of that fact that almost all its FTA
partners are negotiating comprehensive FTAs among themselves and half of
them are or would be (in the case of Japan) in the TPP," it says,
referring to the Trans-Pacific Partnership free trade talks.

http://mdn.mainichi.jp/mdnnews/business/news/20120227p2g00m0bu075000c.html

Gas prices keep rising: $3.70 nationally, $4.29 in California

http://www.latimes.com/business/money/la-fi-mo-gas-prices-20120227,0,4409372.story