http://emsnews.wordpress.com/2012/04/12/three-major-earthquakes-in-24-hours-at-either-end-of-san-andreas/

Commodity exporters should brace for lower prices: IMF

The IMF said baseline projections foresee a
decline in commodity prices during 2012-13. "Sizable downside risks to
global growth also pose risks of further downward adjustment in
commodity prices," it added.

Economic
data on Tuesday showed that China's imports of major commodities are
down. Still, data released so far shows that China's appetite for
commodities is likely to grow although at a slower pace as companies
stockpile. L3E8FA3AX

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/04/10/us-imf-commodities-idUSBRE8390Z820120410

Hilarious. RMB is going up, everything else will go up as well.

Bo Xilai's Son Leaves Apartment Near Harvard

This clown is going to be in a lot of pain soon. enhanced interrogation / worker reeducation type of pain. Probably seeking asylum soon. of course he is practically a useless c1 a asset now.

I assure you, it will not be  japan deflation pathg (ever lower wage,massive industrial productivity increase, constant purchasing power, positive trade balance) basically.......take less pay, work harder, stop consuming natural resource, win global trade market share.

It means massive public transport infrastructure, insane population density, capital control, hyper competitive work force... (Japan in the 00's)   It'll be $100 watermelon, $7minimum wage, and you have better get a college degree with your combini job. No car. do it for 2 decades. ...

The Maastricht Treaty also assumed that
only the public sector is capable of producing unacceptable imbalances;
the market was expected to correct its own excesses. And the Maastricht
Treaty was supposed to have established adequate safeguards against
public sector imbalances. Consequently, when the European Central Bank started operated it treated government bonds as riskless assets that
banks
could hold without allocating any capital reserves against them. This
encouraged commercial banks to accumulate the bonds of the weaker
countries in order to earn a few extra basis points. This caused
interest rates to converge which, contrary to expectations, led to
divergences in economic performance. Germany, struggling with the
burdens of reunification, undertook structural reforms and
became
more competitive. Other countries enjoyed a housing boom that made them
less competitive. Yet others had to bail out their banks after the crash
of 2008. This created conditions that were far removed from those
prescribed by the Maastricht Treaty with totally unexpected
consequences. Government bonds which had been considered riskless turned
out to carry significant credit risks. 

Unfortunately the European authorities
had little understanding of what hit them. They were prepared to deal
with fiscal problems but only Greece qualified as a fiscal crisis; the
rest of Europe suffered from a banking crisis and the divergence in
competitiveness also gave rise to a balance of payments crisis. The
authorities did not even understand the nature of the problem, let alone
see a solution. So they tried to buy time.  

Usually that works. Financial panics
subside and the authorities realize a profit on their intervention. But
not this time because the financial problems were reinforced by a
process of political and social disintegration. While the European Union
was being created, the leadership was in the forefront of further
integration; but after the outbreak of the financial crisis the
authorities became wedded to
preserving the status quo. This has
forced all those who consider the status quo unsustainable or
intolerable into an anti-European posture. That is the political dynamic
that makes the disintegration of the European Union just as self-
reinforcing as its creation has been.  At the onset of the crisis a
breakup of the euro was inconceivable: the assets and liabilities
denominated in a common currency were so intermingled that a breakup
would have led to an uncontrollable meltdown. But as the crisis
progressed the financial system has been progressively reoriented along
national lines. This trend gathered momentum in recent months. The LTRO
enabled Spanish and Italian banks to engage in a very profitable and low
risk arbitrage in the bonds of their own countries. And the
preferential treatment received by the ECB on its Greek bonds will
discourage other investors from holding sovereign debt. If this
continued for a few more years a break-up of the euro would become
possible without a meltdown – the omelet could be unscrambled – but it
would leave the central banks of the creditor countries with large
claims against the central banks of the debtor countries which would be
difficult to collect. 

The Bundesbank has become aware of the
danger. It is now engaged in a campaign against the indefinite expansion
of the money supply and it has started taking measures to limit the
losses it would sustain in case of a breakup. This is creating a
self-fulfilling prophecy. Once the Bundesbank
starts guarding against a breakup everybody will have to do the same. Markets are beginning to reflect this.

http://www.businessinsider.com/george-soros-on-the-eurozone-crisis-2012-4

Unfortunately, euro has to keep printing to match Ben Bernanke speed, or else Euro zone industry will be destroyed. And ben bernak will keep printing in the next 2-3 yrs. That much is obvious.

Bolivian President Evo Morales said earlier in the weekend that all
the Latin American countries wanted to invite Cuba but were stopped by
the U.S.

“It’s like a dictatorship,” said Morales, adding: “It is just
impossible for one country to oppose the will of others and not listen
to them.”

Argentine Foreign Minister Hector Timerman blamed both the U.S. and
Canada for using a “veto” to stop a consensus in favour of Cuba’s
participation.

Meanwhile, another issue — illicit drugs — captured the attention of the summit.

Harper said the leaders had a solid discussion on the issue.

“I think there is almost a universal agreement that we should
continue to fight transnational criminal networks. There is increasing
doubt about whether we are taking the best approach to doing that.”

--------------

The OAS was created as anti communism organization. whaddya expect. The same trick was tried in Asean few weeks back and he was not invited back.. The line was simple, lift Burma sanction or don't come.

Heavy fighting continues on Kabul streets

afghan version of tet offensive. And this while the southern supply line is completely cut off. Meanwhile in north africa another regime change. So, I don;t know how they expect global recovery with so many instability.

E) India feels that a special responsibility lies with “all
countries in Syria’s neighborhood and beyond” to facilitate the success
of the Annan mission. (Comment: A mild stricture of countries like
Turkey or some Persian Gulf monarchies?)

http://blogs.rediff.com/mkbhadrakumar/2012/04/15/india-carries-brics-flag-on-syria/

This might explain the non existence G-8 statement. I don;t understand what happened there...

Today's market action in USD (DXY Inverted - green), TSY yields
(red), S&P 500 futures (blue), and Gold (gold) broke into 5 specific
phases...

Phase 1 - markets were drifting until the release of the major US macro data (retail sales beat and empire manufacturing missed). The better-than-expected retail sales data spurred risk-on
and Treasuries were sold and Stocks bought as the USD was reflexively
sold (on correlations) and gold rallied (a little odd but looked like
modest high USD beta move). Consistent

Phase 2 - US markets opened and started to slide, only helped by a notable miss on NAHB and commentary - risk-off.
This Long USD, Short Stocks, Long Treasuries, Short Gold move all fit
as bad news is bad news (no longer good enough to prompt a pre-emptive
QE3 hope trade). The move was nicely in sync and these risk-off flows
petered out after the first hour or so of the day-session. Consistent

Phase 3 - From mid-morning to the European close, markets generally drifted sideways but the sniff of USD selling was apparent and picking up. Consistent

Phase 4 - From the close of Europe's equity markets to
shortly after their FX market closed (and notably market sweeps and
funding needs are comprehended), the USD was sold hard and aggressively.
The reflexive move of this forced USD selling / EUR
repatriation flow was to push risk-assets up (as correlation algos
reacted). The significant thing is that stocks moved on little volume
(algos not flow) and the selling in FX was heavy and rapid (we need
these EUR now). Inconsistent

Phase 5 - After the European markets had closed is when the
effect of the real asset selling and repatriation flows hits the US
markets. The need to bring EURs home in a hurry likely meant
European banks traded away their US stocks and US Treasuries but this
selling pressure was held back by the algos reacting to USD weakness. As
soon as the FX trades were done and the USD stabilized the buying
pressure disappeared at the margin and so Treasuries and equities sold
off as the marginal algo buyer had gone and all was left was the flow of
the EUR-based sellers left with dealers trying to unwind their
positions. Also note that there was no flow back to Gold or the USD
safety as USD-assets sold off (as they had already been shifted and were
now being reracked by dealers offloading). Inconsistent

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/eurocalypse-now-i-love-smell-repatriation-afternoon

Under the motto “Connecting the Americas: Partnering for Prosperity,”
33 heads of government met at the sixth Organization of American
States’ Summit of the Americas in Cartagena, Colombia. But the mantra at
last weekend’s OAS summit was an oxymoron. Instead, the summit merely
demonstrated the decreasing influence of the U.S. in Latin American
affairs. Not surprisingly, the sheer disagreement among its parties on
the issues of drug decriminalization and the reintegration of Cuba in
forthcoming summit led to the absence of any final declaration.

This hemispheric divide was already foretold when Cuba was ruled out
once again from attending, which in turn triggered Ecuador, Venezuela,
and Nicaragua’s reluctance to participate. Additionally, Bolivia and
Argentina suddenly departed early after complaining about the lack of
overall consensus and Washington's neutral position on Argentina’s claim
over the Falkland Islands. Even with President Barack Obama’s second
consecutive attendance, the Summit was a poor copycat of previous
meetings. Washington’s pressure to ostracize Cuba, the persistent lack
of consensus in approaching the security troubles of its neighbors led
to another failed opportunity for the U.S. The old hegemon of the
Western hemisphere who once toppled leaders and bullied governments will
face stiff competition when juggernauts like Brazil, as well as
multilateral entities like CELAC, UNASUR, and ALBA, demand more of the
region’s diplomatic pie.

http://www.worldpolicy.org/blog/2012/04/16/cartagena-romancing-undone

This is going to be bad for trade soon enough

Overall, the predictions are not dire for 2012. The season is being
forecast to be relatively tame. Forecasters seem to agree mostly that
there is a probability of 12 named storms and out of the 12 named
storms, seven possibly will develop into hurricanes.

Out of the seven hurricanes, three of these are being predicted to be
"major" hurricanes in scope with winds sustaining 111 mph or more. This
would place them at a minimum at Category 3 status on the Saffir-Simpson scale.

Most the landfall models are predicting fairly close or normal
landfall of storms along the United States coastline. The Gulf of Mexico
coastline and the coastline of Florida are being given an elevated
chance of landfall over the East Coast in 2012.

When on calculates the "averages" for the Atlantic-Caribbean
hurricane season, we come up with the numbers that reflect 12.1 tropical
storms with 6.4 maturing into hurricanes annually.

http://dalehyde.hubpages.com/hub/Hurricane-Season-2012-Predictions-and-Names

Now, if you happen to have a tattoo (or two, or three), don’t
take this the wrong way, but… tattoos are a highly reliable indicator of
risky behavior.  There are numerous studies in well regarded social sciences publications (see here:  http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S089932890100061X, and here: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1054139X02004469, and here http://www.jfponline.com/Pages.asp?AID=4762
).  OK, the last one is really more about body piercing, but the idea
is the same.  Teenagers and young adults with tattoos are significantly
more likely to engage in risky behaviors such as intravenous drug use,
risky sex, and smoking.  There is, of course, a big
‘Correlation/causation” problem here.  Do risk-loving young people
cluster around the tattoo parlor because they see it as adventuresome? 
Or do they simply get a tattoo as a matter of social solidarity with
their like-minded friends?  Hard to know.  But take one look at the
Google Trends data for the number of people searching the phrase “Get a
tattoo” – we’ve included the chart below.  As you might guess, it is
essentially straight up and to the right.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/risk-takers-and-tattoo-haters

just hope gen X leader will be nice, cause I for one have no problem   proposing soylent green - mass genetic engineering solution to boomer retirement. If you think boomer created some whacked mutant like Bush, I am afraid you haven't seen twisted yet. Forget GWOT, bullshit economic theory, middle east regime change, global financial fraud, or radiation leak level of stupidity. They all are 60's level of social engineering and cold war era institutions. kindergarten play. Next phase should be total genetic data mining and reengineering. Remove defective speciment from the pool and prevent things like baby boomer dr00ls to ever emerge again.. deep social shaping. And skip the stock market already. jeebus... It's pennies crap shoot table. Do people really think all that gonna pay retirement?  It doesn't make sense! Look at all those state retirement funds.  At current inflation rate and money printing, the country gonna need something like 5% population growth on top of double digit GDP growth just to keep the social security scheme whole. Probably it'll be dow 100K just to pay boomer retirement .. Fantasy scenario.

Incensed Spain threatens Argentina after YPF seizure

An incensed Spain
threatened swift economic retaliation against Argentina on Tuesday
after it unveiled plans to seize YPF, the South American nation's
biggest oil company which is controlled by Spanish energy group Repsol.

Madrid called in Argentina's
ambassador over the nationalization order on Monday by Argentina's
combative president, Cristina Fernandez, a move that sent Repsol shares
tumbling but delighted many ordinary Argentines.

"I must express my profound unease. It's a negative decision for everyone," Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy said.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/04/18/us-spain-argentina-ypf-eu-idUSBRE83G0QU20120418

oh yeah... let's go to war... Nice move Spain, how you gonna pay a trade war against Argentina backed by entire latam block? borrow more money from ECB? Watch Argentina pull the plug on Spain banks and repatriating all asset.

BERLIN (AP) -- Germany wants the International
Monetary Fund's lending capacity to be brought to some $1 trillion,
meaning adding another $400 billion to its coffers, a senior official in
Berlin said Tuesday.

The official, speaking on condition of anonymity
in line with government policy, said bringing the IMF's war chest to a
"similar" level as the European financial firewall of 800 billion euros
($1.1 trillion) would send a strong signal to markets.

http://mainichi.jp/english/english/newsselect/news/20120418p2g00m0bu087000c.html

Merkel is smoking crack. Either she backed changing the IMF voting proportion or make France agree on china status in return of direct injection. No free money.

PARIS (Reuters) – French President Nicolas
Sarkozy’s re-election hopes suffered a double setback four days from the
first round of voting when a string of public defections compounded the
impression that his tumble in opinion polls is pushing victory beyond
reach.

http://www.euronews.com/newswires/1486350-frances-sarkozy-hit-by-defections-and-poll-plunge/

Yet another ugly day in financial markets: around the world stocks fell, the euro weakened, and commodity prices fell on fears that world growth will stall. The source of the problems was, again, Europe.

In the Netherlands, the center-right government of Mark Rutte fell,
unable to cobble together a coalition to pass budget cuts required by
EU fiscal rules – rules that mandate that eurozone countries run annual
deficits no more than 3% of GDP, which would force stringent austerity
upon the Dutch to bring down a deficit that is currently projected to be
4.6% of GDP in 2012. Rutte, along with Merkel of Germany, was a hardline advocate of the 3% fiscal discipline rules.

But
given that the sober Dutch are in no danger of defaulting on their
AAA-rated bonds, why the turmoil and panic? Because, perhaps, the Dutch
are indeed sober – and a significant number of them have said "enough".
Having seen the devastation inflicted on the Greek, Irish and Spanish
economies by tough austerity measures, many have concluded that the pain
is simply not worth it to meet an arbitrary 3% deficit rule.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/cifamerica/2012/apr/24/european-turmoil-american-collateral

European political landscape is massively changing again, just like when Bush/rove starting regime change in europe (suddenly wingnut wacko popping all over europe overnight)

Now it's reaction of merkozy policy. It';ll be mix of ultra right and return of center left, rejecting Bush era wackos. Spain turns center right, waiting for new Franco-germany new pairing. Merkel probably will survive and her true instinct to make germany strong in europe will re-emerge, paired with new more independent/zionist free France. Merkel will once again come out as the last leader that provide european with much needed leadership. (once she can sort out her bankers)

Netherland will turn complete wacko and fractured. Center anything (left or right) will be removed from office.

If I have to guess, it will be Germany-france new alliance combined with Russian-Chinese money, the fringe will fall into new orbit. US role will be greatly diminished in europe, as US is considered the new idiot of world order. (bunch of redneck bickering in DC and constant zionist war in middle east plus total mess in pacific. Huge budgetary mess, bigger than vietnam era stagflation. colllapse of dollar credibility in global trade by 2020.)

Rising gas prices hit hard

How Long Before America Hits the Wall?

But there will be two important differences vis-à-vis
2008-2009. First, it will be happening with the US government far
deeper in debt than it was when the last recession began. In the
tightening phase, the government's interest expense will move above $1
trillion per year, and the budget deficit will jump to new record highs.
Second, it will be happening with the rate of price inflation already
at a troubling level. Another round of the monetary therapy the Fed
applied to cure the last recession would push price inflation to levels
beyond those reached in the 1970s. They'll do it anyway.

This
gets us to 2016 or 2017 with the system in turmoil but still
functioning. No wall yet, and there will be room for at least one more
cycle of reflation. But it will be a fast cycle, since in an
environment of already high inflation, people will be quick to spend
the newly created cash. That means a quick recovery from the 2017
recession and a catapult into the 20% plus range for price inflation.
Then the wall may be in sight.

http://www.financialsense.com/contributors/terry-coxon/how-long-before-america-hits-the-wall

The most "real" one will be when long term supplier contractor in the far east start demanding contract in non dollar denomination. From then, things will spiral out of control VERY quickly. (all those crappy currency swap, interest, etc. won't matter since those are all fantasy trade between banksters. Only lasting few micro second, fleeting bet.)

But if supplier start demanding non dollar, Walmart, HP, dell, GM/Ford, best buy...garment, consumer electronic  ...APPLE! ....then we have supply chain disruption, contract cancelation, firing, factory clossing, etc..

The entire US retailers will die overnight, literally. none of these idiots are prepared or know what to do in the event of dollar overnight change..

ASEAN, China to become top trade partners

Last year, ASEAN overtook Japan to become China's third-largest
trading partner, having $362.3 billion in trade with the country, up 24
percent from a year earlier.

China had $446.6 billion in trade with the United States in 2011 and $567.2 billion with the EU in the same year.

China's trade is increasing rapidly with emerging economies at a time that it is slowing down with developed countries.

Data from the Ministry of Commerce show that the value of trade
between China and the EU increased by 2.6 percent year-on-year in the
first quarter of 2012, and trade with Japan declined by 1.6 percent in
the same period. Trade between China and ASEAN increased by 9.2 percent
in the first quarter.

"China's trade with ASEAN will increase faster than with the US and
EU, and ASEAN is likely to become China's largest trading partner in the
coming years," said He Weiwen, co-director at the China-US-EU Study
Center at the China Association of International Trade.

http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/cndy/2012-04/20/content_15094898.htm

There goes dollar velocity

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/guest-post-presenting-us-government’s-infographic-its-own-insolvency

 

G-10 Macro Data Plunges To Worst In Six Months, Turns Negative

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/g-10-macro-data-plunges-worst-six-months-turns-negative

Russia And Mexico Both Buy Nearly $1 Billion Worth of Gold in March

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2012/04/discontents-in-nothing-we-trust/

Everybody sense it. Those numbers in the news are all BS.

Debt and net-equity in owner-occupied housing...

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/here-what-other-financial-health-metrics-are-showing